PREVENT: AHA cardiovascular risk
Estimates 10 and 30 year cardiovascular disease risk with the American Heart Association PREVENT equations.
When to use
Adult aged 30 to 79 without known cardiovascular disease, for primary prevention decisions.
Pearls and pitfalls
- The equation is logistic rather than a point table, so the result follows every variable continuously.
- Total cardiovascular disease includes atherosclerotic disease (myocardial infarction and stroke) and heart failure.
- Glomerular filtration enters continuously with a knot at 60 mL/min per 1.73 m².
- BMI only counts in the heart failure model: in the total cardiovascular disease equations its coefficient is zero.
- The equations were derived in more than 6 million adults and calibrated to the United States population.
- The 30-year horizon applies from 30 to 59 years; above that only 10-year risk is shown.
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Formula
Logistic regression with age centred at 55 years, non-HDL cholesterol centred at 3.5 mmol/L, HDL in 0.3 mmol/L steps, systolic pressure with a knot at 110 mmHg, BMI with a knot at 30, glomerular filtration with a knot at 60, treatment, statin and the age interactions.
Evidence
Equations derived and validated in contemporary United States cohorts, with 10 and 30 year risk for total cardiovascular disease, atherosclerotic disease, heart failure, coronary disease and stroke.
References
- Khan SS, Matsushita K, Sang Y, et al. Development and Validation of the American Heart Association PREVENT Equations. Circulation. 2024;149(6):430-449. doi:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.067626
Frequently asked questions
What is PREVENT: AHA cardiovascular risk?
Estimates 10 and 30 year cardiovascular disease risk with the American Heart Association PREVENT equations. Adult aged 30 to 79 without known cardiovascular disease, for primary prevention decisions.
How is the result calculated?
Logistic regression with age centred at 55 years, non-HDL cholesterol centred at 3.5 mmol/L, HDL in 0.3 mmol/L steps, systolic pressure with a knot at 110 mmHg, BMI with a knot at 30, glomerular filtration with a knot at 60, treatment, statin and the age interactions.
How should the result be interpreted?
Equations derived and validated in contemporary United States cohorts, with 10 and 30 year risk for total cardiovascular disease, atherosclerotic disease, heart failure, coronary disease and stroke.
What are the sources?
Khan SS, Matsushita K, Sang Y, et al. Development and Validation of the American Heart Association PREVENT Equations. Circulation. 2024;149(6):430-449.