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EuroSCORE II: cardiac surgery mortality

Estimates predicted in-hospital mortality in cardiac surgery from 18 risk factors.

When to use

Adult being assessed for cardiac surgery, to estimate the predicted operative mortality of the European model.

Pearls and pitfalls
  • The clearance bands are 51 to 85 and 50 or less, and dialysis counts whatever the creatinine.
  • A recent infarction is one within 90 days before the operation.
  • Age enters as 1 up to 60 years and rises one point per year after that, so 70 years is 11.
  • The result is a probability from the logistic function, not a point count.
  • It is a population prediction model and does not replace the surgical team judgement or the institutional score.
  • The earlier logistic EuroSCORE overestimated risk in this cohort and was replaced by this model.
years

Sex

NYHA class

CCS angina class 4

Insulin-dependent diabetes

Extracardiac arteriopathy

Chronic pulmonary dysfunction

Neurological or musculoskeletal dysfunction affecting mobility

Previous cardiac surgery

Renal function

Active endocarditis

Critical preoperative state

Left ventricular function

Myocardial infarction within 90 days

Pulmonary artery systolic pressure

Urgency of the operation

Weight of the procedure

Thoracic aortic surgery

Fill in the fields to see the result.

Formula

Predicted mortality = e^y divided by (1 + e^y), with y = −5.324537 plus the coefficient of each factor.

Evidence

Model derived in 22,381 patients from 154 centres and validated in the validation cohort, with an area under the ROC curve near 0.80.

References

  1. Nashef SAM, Roques F, Sharples LD, et al. EuroSCORE II. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg. 2012;41(4):734-745. doi:10.1093/ejcts/ezs043

Frequently asked questions

What is EuroSCORE II: cardiac surgery mortality?

Estimates predicted in-hospital mortality in cardiac surgery from 18 risk factors. Adult being assessed for cardiac surgery, to estimate the predicted operative mortality of the European model.

How is the result calculated?

Predicted mortality = e^y divided by (1 + e^y), with y = −5.324537 plus the coefficient of each factor.

How should the result be interpreted?

Model derived in 22,381 patients from 154 centres and validated in the validation cohort, with an area under the ROC curve near 0.80.

What are the sources?

Nashef SAM, Roques F, Sharples LD, et al. EuroSCORE II. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg. 2012;41(4):734-745.

Updated